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“The Chiefs entered the matchup against the Baltimore Ravens as +190 moneyline underdogs and 4.5-point underdogs at ESPN BET. This marked the largest underdog role of Patrick Mahomes’ career. Notably, just the week prior, they were +130 underdogs against the Buffalo Bills in the divisional round.”

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The definition of insanity is doing the same thing over and over again and expecting different results.”This quote, commonly credited to Albert Einstein (although there’s lots of evidence that he never said this) serves as a reminder that change is necessary to achieve any progress or success.

 

 

Yet somehow, Patrick Mahomes is an underdog again in the playoffs. Should we expect a different result? Or are the Chiefs going to repeat as champs and pull off a third straight betting upset?

 

The Chiefs closed as +190 moneyline underdogs and 4.5-point underdogs against the Baltimore Ravens at ESPN BET; it was the largest underdog role of Patrick Mahomes’ career. This came one week after being +130 dogs against the Buffalo Bills in the divisional round.

 

 

The past two weeks echo what we’ve seen from Mahomes over and over again; he thrives as an underdog, going 4-1 outright and 5-0 ATS in his toughest matchups.

 

No quarterback in the Super Bowl era has been better as an underdog than Mahomes. His 10-1-1 ATS record in those games is the best mark of any qualified passer in that span. Eleven of those games came on the road, with his near-perfect 10-0-1 away cover rate also ranking as the best in the Super Bowl era.

 

 

Speaking of winning, Mahomes has won each of his past six postseason starts, one shy of tying four Hall of Famers (John Elway, Troy Aikman, Joe Montana and Terry Bradshaw) for the second-longest streak in the Super Bowl era. Only Tom Brady’s 10-game streak from 2001-05 surpassed that mark.

 

However, most of those teams were favored to advance in their respective playoffs. This year’s Chiefs reached the title game as underdogs and they’re the ninth team in the past 20 seasons to pull off upset wins in the divisional round and conference championship. Those teams won the Super Bowl in six of the previous eight instances.

 

 

Underdogs as a whole have performed well in the Super Bowl as well, covering in three straight games (winning two outright) and posting a 9-7 W-L and 11-5 ATS record since 2007.

 

And then there’s the piece de resistance: Andy Reid is elite coming off a bye. He’s 23-15 ATS in his career with at least 12 days to prepare for a game and 31-7 outright in those games. The Reid-Mahomes duo is 11-2 straight up with an extra week off (and yes, they do have an above average record overall, but this is a better win pct than they have on regular rest

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